NoVA apartment forecast: Will 2022 bring another seller’s market?

VIRGINIA – Northern Virginia and Washington, DC home prices will continue to rise in 2022, but at a slower pace than they have been in the last 18 months, according to real estate experts.

The DC area economy is expected to continue to perform well – although the COVID-19 pandemic is cause for concern well into 2022 – supported by built-in competitive advantages such as the well-entrenched technology sector and new spending programs of the Federal government Many employees in the region benefit from this.

Since the pandemic started in March 2020, the Northern Virginia residential real estate market has bucked expectations, according to Ryan McLaughlin, CEO of the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.

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“Who would have thought that the housing market would not only survive but thrive amid pandemic conditions that nearly paralyzed the economy,” McLaughlin said during an online briefing with reporters on December 16 to announce the release of the market forecast 2022 of the association.

Amazon’s growing presence at its second headquarters in Arlington will also help keep the region’s economy from slipping into a slump. “The influx of new jobs that Amazon offers and is to come has created a ripple effect that is benefiting the region,” he said.

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As there continue to be more job vacancies than employees in high-wage sectors of the economy, many households will gain the confidence to make major purchases such as homes, according to the 2022 market forecast, published by NVAR in partnership with the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason. was published university.

However, upward pressure on mortgage rates in 2022 could make the market too expensive for some potential buyers. And inflationary pressures in the first half of 2022 could make it even more difficult for many to buy a home in the region, according to the forecast.

Rob Traister, a RE / MAX 100 real estate agent and associate broker licensed in Virginia and Maryland, recalls that when the pandemic broke out in March 2020, some real estate agents assumed the housing market would decline.

“Those of us who stood up for our customers had a good year. I made more than twice as much business in 2020 as in 2019, and I made 30 percent more in 2021 than in 2020,” Traister said in an interview with Patch .

Many people did everything – work, school, leisure – from home, and when their house didn’t meet their needs, they went looking for a new place to stay, Traister said.

Get ready for a competitive 2022

For the buyers he worked with in 2020 and 2021, Traister said he prepared them to lose some deals before signing a home.

“With so much competition, it was almost inevitable. The lenders I work with know quick close is key in this market, so my offers usually emphasize a quick close – 21 days or less – with as few contingencies as possible, ”said. “If we can, I encourage buyers to have pre-listing inspections so that the listing doesn’t require home inspections.”

With demand for housing still outpacing supply, it will remain a sellers’ market in 2022, according to Traister, although prices in the region are unlikely to rise as much or as quickly as they have in the past two years.

“Things will level off a bit in 2022 as inventory catches up with demand, but house prices will still rise about 5.5 percent,” he said. “That assumes that nothing unexpected happens over the course of the next year, and if the last two years have taught us anything, it is to be prepared for the unexpected.”

By considering the largest jurisdiction in the area, it is expected that sales prices for single-family homes in Fairfax County will continue to rise in 2022. according to NVAR forecast.

(Northern Virginia Association of Realtors)

In Arlington County, sales are projected to increase slightly despite a lower inventory of homes for sale than in 2020. And sellers are likely to get their asking price unless the home is way overpriced.

Nationwide, the demand for buyers remains high. There were a total of 12,134 home sales in Virginia as of November, 3.7 percent more than at the same time in 2020.

“The Virginia real estate market remains very resilient,” said Lisa Sturtevant, Virginia Realtors chief economist. “There are some headwinds – including the surge in Omicron cases and the potential for rate hikes – but most of the signs point to continued strong demand in the months ahead.”

The statewide average list price ratio in Virginia in November was 100.6 percent. This means that homes that were sold in Virginia closed at an average price that was 0.6 percent above the asking price. Also, the average market time across the state in November was 26 days, five days faster than last year.

Be ready to jump but avoid bad deals

Finding an affordable home will be a challenge for first-time home buyers in many parts of the country in 2022. Limited homes for sale and rising mortgage rates are driving costs up across the country, according to Realtor.com’s “Housing Market Forecast 2022: A Whirlwind Year.”

“Homeowners ready to sell in 2022 are in a good position,” Realtor.com said in its forecast. “Even as the inventory for sale begins to grow … inexpensive homes in good condition will continue to sell quickly in many markets. And for sellers who have owned their homes for a long time, it will likely mean they will walk away the transaction with a healthy amount of money. “

For the metropolitan area of ​​DC, the number of home sales is expected to increase by 5.6 percent compared to 2021 and realtor.com forecasts that property sales prices will increase by 3.8 percent.

“If you want to buy a house, you have to compete for it,” said Dr. Terry Clower, Professor of Public Order at George Mason University and Director of the GMU Center for Regional Analysis, on the Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria residential real estate markets during the NVAR briefing on December 16. “If you want to sell a house, you get everything you ask for it.”

In 2022, first-time home buyers should look as early as possible to avoid the likely rise in interest rates later in the year, Clower said.

“But be patient too,” he warned. “Don’t get into bad business.”

For sellers, when to market their homes depends on their needs.

Traister said he has clients planning to list their homes right after the holidays. “I expect these homes to sell quickly at above list prices,” he said. “Other customers plan to move in the spring and summer, so we will continue to monitor market conditions and list these homes at a time that is convenient for the sellers.”

“If we’re just talking hypothetical, I wouldn’t hesitate to list them in January,” added Traister. “Interest rates can go up a bit at the beginning of the new year, but even then they are still historically low.”


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